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Proof Test Mode · no hindsight allowed

Would we have spotted it?

Pick something that really happened — a profit warning, a dividend cut, a good set of results — tell us the date and where you read it, and the desk will say honestly whether free public information would have flagged it at the time.

It is never allowed to use what happened afterwards as proof, and it is never allowed to claim it predicted the future. If the evidence was thin, it says so and scores itself low. This is research and practice only, not financial advice.

Events tested110–20 is enough to judge the desk properly
Judged helpful1 of 1would have helped a beginner take more care
Average usefulness35/40evidence, clarity, usefulness and source quality

Test another real event

Proof Test Results

Carillion plcCLLN
Profit warning
10 Jul 201735/40Helpful

Lesson: When a company issues a sudden guidance downgrade while simultaneously losing its chief executive and scrapping its dividend, it signals acute financial distress.

What happened

Carillion issued a massive £845m contract provision, warned that full-year results would fall well below expectations, and announced the immediate departure of its CEO.

Why it mattered

This was one of the largest profit warnings in UK corporate history, exposing deep holes in major construction contracts and severe cash strain.

Would we have spotted it? Yes
Confidence: High
Auditor: Verified

What was visible at the time

  • Official regulatory announcement confirming an £845m provision against construction contracts.
  • Announcement that operating profit and cash flow would be materially below previous expectations.
  • Immediate stepping down of Chief Executive Richard Howson.
  • Suspension of the 2017 dividend and a sharp increase in net debt.

What was missing

  • Full details of contract-by-contract deterioration prior to the strategic review announcement date.

Warning rules this touches

  • R3 Senior management departure — The CEO, CFO or Chair leaves suddenly with no retirement plan mentioned.
  • R7 Sudden debt increase — Net borrowings jump 30%+ in one period with no takeover to explain it.
  • R9 Profit warning or guidance downgrade — An announcement contains “profit warning”, “below expectations” or “materially below”.

Would this have helped someone new to investing?

It clearly showed three major red flags appearing all at once on the stock exchange news feed: a profit warning, an immediate boss departure, and soaring debt.

Usefulness score: 35/40

  • Free public evidence available8/10
  • Easy for a beginner to understand8/10
  • Useful for a real decision9/10
  • How trustworthy the source is10/10

In their own words

  • The Board has concluded that it is necessary to make provisions totalling £845m... performance for the full year will be materially below previous expectations.

    source

  • Richard Howson has stepped down as Group Chief Executive with immediate effect.

    source

Lesson learned: When a company issues a sudden guidance downgrade while simultaneously losing its chief executive and scrapping its dividend, it signals acute financial distress.

The link you gave us

Once 10–20 real events have been tested and the scores hold up, we can build a proper automated backtest using price history and announcement feeds.